Development of a model based on biochemical, real-time tissue elastography and ultrasound data for the staging of liver fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B

The liver fibrosis index (LFI), based on real‑time tissue elastography (RTE), is a method currently used to assess liver fibrosis. However, this method may not consistently distinguish between the different stages of fibrosis, which limits its accuracy. The aim of the present study was to develop novel models based on biochemical, RTE and ultrasound data for predicting significant liver fibrosis and cirrhosis. A total of 85 consecutive patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) were prospectively enrolled and underwent a liver biopsy and RTE. The parameters for predicting significant fibrosis and cirrhosis were determined by conducting multivariate analyses. The splenoportal index (SPI; P=0.002) and LFI (P=0.023) were confirmed as independent predictors of significant fibrosis. Using multivariate analyses for identifying parameters that predict cirrhosis, significant differences in γ‑glutamyl transferase (GGT; P=0.049), SPI (P=0.002) and LFI (P=0.001) were observed. Based on these observations, the novel model LFI‑SPI score (LSPS) was developed to predict the occurrence of significant liver fibrosis, with an area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC) of 0.87. The diagnostic accuracy of the LSPS model was superior to that of the LFI (AUROC=0.76; P=0.0109), aspartate aminotransferase‑to‑platelet ratio index (APRI; AUROC=0.64; P=0.0031), fibrosis‑4 index (FIB‑4; AUROC=0.67; P=0.0044) and FibroScan (AUROC=0.68; P=0.0021) models. In addition, the LFI‑SPI‑GGT score (LSPGS) was developed for the purposes of predicting liver cirrhosis, demonstrating an AUROC value of 0.93. The accuracy of LSPGS was similar to that of FibroScan (AUROC=0.85; P=0.134), but was superior to LFI (AUROC=0.81; P=0.0113), APRI (AUROC=0.67; P<0.0001) and FIB‑4 (AUROC=0.719; P=0.0005). In conclusion, the results of the present study suggest that the use of LSPS and LSPGS may complement current methods of diagnosing significant liver fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with CHB.